fix(outcome): forgive candidate regressions when clears outnumber them

[solomonneas]

Summary

• Decision for outcome: a regression permanently withholds an unchanged candidate cohort #629: define a bounded forgiveness rule for later verified clears in the same unchanged content-fingerprint cohort (do not withhold forever on any hurt).
• Candidates withhold only while helped <= hurt; they install when helped >= install_min_helped and clears strictly outnumber regressions.
• Promoted demotion on hurt remains a separate immediate policy. Append-only evidence is never rewritten. Scorecard effectiveness uses the same helper.

Closes #629.

Verify receipt

20260801-042517-work-verify-aa3a0c

brigade work verify run --target . --command "./scripts/verify" --capture brigade-work

Acceptance criteria → tests

Criterion	Test
helped=10 hurt=1 installs (forgiveness)	test_decide_installs_candidate_when_later_clears_outnumber_regression
Regressions not outnumbered still withhold	test_decide_withholds_candidate_when_regressions_are_not_outnumbered
Content-fingerprint change scores a new cohort	test_decide_scores_new_fingerprint_cohort_separately_from_regressed_cohort
Promoted demotion unchanged	test_decide_rolls_back_a_promoted_artifact_on_regression

Test plan

• tests/test_outcome.py + scorecard suites green
• brigade work verify run --target . --command "./scripts/verify" --capture brigade-work
• External grader review before merge

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