Fire the CEO — ceo.futarchy.fi

Robin Hanson's fire-the-CEO decision markets, live on Sepolia testnet: for each of the top-100 US public companies, a pair of called-off conditional markets on company value (CEO out by quarter end vs CEO stays) plus a departure-probability market — and the public ranking of every company by its market-estimated fire premium.

Live: https://ceo.futarchy.fi

Deployment (Sepolia, chain 11155111)

Contract	Address
FireTheCEO	0x267b838f5786b609b55481695d7d58220a8c2bb1 (verified)
PlayUSD (pUSD)	0xa9f9d48363f4a1c5d25a962f42dc10326f21259f (verified)
Operator / oracle	0x693E3FB46Bb36eE43C702FE94f9463df0691b43d

First cycle: horizon 2026-09-30 23:59 UTC, settlement read 2026-10-30 21:00 UTC (closing price, one month after the quarter, per Hanson's "measure value after the decision settles"). 101 companies listed (company 0 is a resolved TEST used for the on-chain lifecycle rehearsal — see docs/rehearsal.md).

Mechanism (one contract, three LMSR markets per company)

• OUT / STAY — scalar markets on normalized value over a [0.25×, 1.75×] spot band; the market whose condition fails is void and refunds every trader's paid-in cash exactly. Sell proceeds are escrowed until resolution — that is what makes the bets genuinely callable-off (and the contract solvency-proof: cash never leaves between trade and resolution).
• EXIT — binary market on the departure condition itself.
• Every market is a subsidized LMSR market maker (Hanson's own design); the exact worst-case-loss subsidy C(q₀) − min(q₀) is computed and funded on-chain at listing (≈1.35M pUSD across the board).
• Fire premium = (E[value|OUT] − E[value|STAY]) / spot. The FIRE/KEEP signal implements Hanson's OldTek rule: premium positive in ≥90% of snapshots over the trailing week (WATCH below 20 observations — no price, no signal).
• Resolution: operator oracle with a 48 h dispute window; oracle is a swappable address (Reality.eth v3 exists on Sepolia at 0xaf33…49CA for a future adapter).

Solvency is enforced by construction and tested: Foundry invariant suite (contracts/test/FireTheCEO.invariants.t.sol) checks every resolution scenario × random trading; 43 tests total.

Repo layout

• contracts/ — Foundry: FireTheCEO.sol, PlayUSD.sol, LMSR.sol, tests, deploy/list/seed/resolve scripts
• site/ — Vite + React + wagmi/RainbowKit static SPA (design: docs/design-direction.md)
• ops/ — snapshot.mjs + systemd user units (30-min board snapshots → /data/history.json)
• data/ — deployment addresses, verified company dataset (July 2026 CEOs, independently cross-checked), listing priors, seed-trade disclosure
• docs/ — design spec, implementation plan, Hanson primary-source citations, rehearsal evidence

Runbook (farol)

• Site: build site/ with bun → rsync site/dist/ → /home/kelvin/fleet/apps/ceo/dist/ (Caddy site ceo.futarchy.fi, Cloudflare tunnel colony-ops, DNS in futarchy.fi zone).
• Snapshots: systemctl --user status ceo-snapshot.timer (writes /home/kelvin/fleet/apps/ceo/data/, served at /data/*).
• Resolve a company: contracts/script/Resolve.s.sol (oracle key), source URI in calldata.
• New listings: append to data/listings.json (plain JSON numbers — string values break vm.parseJson struct decoding) and run ListCompanies.s.sol (idempotent).

Known limitations (deliberate, testnet)

• Positions are internal balances, not ERC-20s; all trading is against the LMSR.
• Subsidies and void-market surplus stay in the contract (no withdrawal path).
• Oracle is the operator key; measurement-window liquidity boosts (Hanson 2024 refinement) are a documented follow-up, not yet implemented.