Malaria Vaccine Scenario Modeling – Dera Woreda (Exercise Project)

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This repository hosts the malaria vaccine scenario modeling exercise completed as part of the
Infectious Diseases Modeling Using R Training, delivered by
The Ohio State University & Ohio State Global One Health (August 11–15, 2025).

The project explores malaria transmission dynamics in Dera woreda under two modeled conditions:

1. Baseline scenario (no vaccine)\
2. Intervention scenario incorporating malaria vaccination

The repository demonstrates the use of deterministic R-based compartmental modeling for real-world malaria program decision-making.

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Repository Structure

├── Mal vac models.pptx
├── Malaria_modeling_excercise_project work.R
├── Malaria_without_vaccine.R
├── README.md
└── outputs\

├── Malaria_model with out vaccine.png\
├── Popn with out vaccine.png\
├── Rplot.png\
└── mal_model_with negative sigma.png

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Project Overview

This modeling exercise includes:

• Construction of SEIR-type malaria models using base R functions
• Integration of vaccine efficacy, coverage, and waning dynamics
• Simulation of malaria transmission trajectories under different assumptions
• Visualization of:
  • Incidence over time
  • Prevalence changes
  • Compartment transitions
• Programmatic interpretation for:
  • Local decision-making
  • Scenario comparison
  • Public health relevance

This repository is designed as a learning and teaching tool in epidemiological modeling.

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How to Use

1. Clone or download this repository.
2. Open either R script:
   • Malaria_without_vaccine.R
   • Malaria_modeling_excercise_project work.R
3. Run code in RStudio or any R environment.
4. Check all generated plots inside the outputs/ folder.
5. See final interpretation and presentation in Mal vac models.pptx.

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Audience

This repository would be helpful for:

• Trainees in infectious disease modeling
• Public health surveillance and analytics teams
• Researchers and students
• Capacity-building programs seeking ready-to-use modeling exercises

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License

This work is licensed under the
Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–NoDerivatives 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) License.

What you can do: \

• Share the material with proper attribution
• Use for teaching or learning

What you cannot do: \

• Use for commercial purposes
• Modify, transform, or build upon this work without permission

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Contact

For collaboration, permission to reuse, or technical questions, reach out:

Henok Tadesse
📧 [email protected]

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Strengthening infectious diseass modeling capacity for evidence-based public health action.