The Impact of Religious Intervention on Fertility Rates: A Synthetic Control Analysis of Patriarch Ilia II's Influence in Georgia
This study evaluates the impact of Patriarch Ilia II’s baptism initiative on fertility rates in Georgia using the Synthetic Control Method. The analysis reveals a substantial and sustained increase in fertility rates attributable to this culturally and religiously grounded intervention, estimating approximately 159,759 additional births from 2008 to 2022. Representing a 1.24% increase relative to the cumulative reproductive-age female population, these findings highlight the effectiveness of non-financial, culturally embedded pronatalist policies. The research underscores the importance of institutional trust and socio-cultural contexts in demographic interventions and provides valuable insights for policymakers aiming to mitigate demographic declines through culturally sensitive approaches.