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Treatment Updates for Alzheimer's#1886

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aflaxman merged 4 commits intomainfrom
Alz_treatment_update
Jan 17, 2026
Merged

Treatment Updates for Alzheimer's#1886
aflaxman merged 4 commits intomainfrom
Alz_treatment_update

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@SylLutze
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@SylLutze SylLutze commented Jan 16, 2026

Changes:

  • Change in treatment ramp-up from Lilly
  • Change in duration of treatment effectiveness for both full and waning impact
  • Change in discontinuation to add months to discontinuation and duration of effect dependent on months
  • Add observer for months on treatment for those who discontinue

Note: I can't get the graphviz figure to load so I can't tell if it's working... I'm trying to fix it but I want to discuss with engineering so posting this early and I will hopefully update soon.

@SylLutze SylLutze added SE review required Change in modeling strategy or input parameters that the SE's need to be aware of. SE's to merge PR. Alzheimers_sim Alzheimer's simulation for CSU, starting July 2025 labels Jan 16, 2026
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* - :math:`D_t`
- Months to discontinuation
- A full course of treatment is 9 months. We assume simulants discontinue evenly for each monthly injection. The months to discontinuation will be assigned from a uniform distribution between 1 and 8 inclusive.
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So I think this will result in 10% $\times$ (1/8) = 1.25% of people discontinuing each month for the first 8 months, as opposed to 1% discontinuation per month for the first 9 months as Lilly specified (unless I have an off-by-one error or something...). Is that acceptable?

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I think so

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This was an intentional choice I made. I realized you can't "discontinue" at 9 months - the treatment lasts for 9 months. So then I could either pick 8% total discontinuation rate, 1% per month, or keep the 10% and not hit the monthly rate they specified. I picked the 10% value.

Co-authored-by: Nathaniel Blair-Stahn <ndbs@uw.edu>
@aflaxman aflaxman merged commit aadd709 into main Jan 17, 2026
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@aflaxman aflaxman deleted the Alz_treatment_update branch January 17, 2026 00:23
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Alzheimers_sim Alzheimer's simulation for CSU, starting July 2025 SE review required Change in modeling strategy or input parameters that the SE's need to be aware of. SE's to merge PR.

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3 participants