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Separate antepartum and postpartum hemorrhage#1936

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zmbc wants to merge 5 commits intomainfrom
postpartum_hemorrhage
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Separate antepartum and postpartum hemorrhage#1936
zmbc wants to merge 5 commits intomainfrom
postpartum_hemorrhage

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@zmbc zmbc commented May 1, 2026

There's quite a lot here, sorry.

This further lays the groundwork for EMOTIVE by differentiating antepartum hemorrhage from postpartum hemorrhage.

The data for the split is a bit interesting, see ihmeuw/vivarium_gates_mncnh#308

@zmbc zmbc requested review from SylLutze, aflaxman, alibow and tylerdy May 1, 2026 21:57
@zmbc zmbc requested review from hussain-jafari and pletale May 4, 2026 16:18
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Overall direction looks good to me, but I did not give a line by line review :)

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We will not model antepartum hemorrhage as a state machine, but as a one-time decision.
We will choose whether the pregnant person has antepartum hemorrhage at *some* time between the later ANC visit (if there is one) and the end of pregnancy.
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This could be clarified to indicate what happens if there is not a later ANC visit -- does that mean no APH? or APH just happens in a different time window?

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I see that you've covered this on the anemia YLDs page, but it is probably nice to have spelled out here too

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alibow commented May 4, 2026

Also I am not confident I'm fully caught up with the current status of anemia YLDs V&V, but I expect this may bring us further out of line with the GBD values. It might be nice to include an overview of those expectations on the anemia YLDs page.

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zmbc commented May 4, 2026

Also I am not confident I'm fully caught up with the current status of anemia YLDs V&V, but I expect this may bring us further out of line with the GBD values. It might be nice to include an overview of those expectations on the anemia YLDs page.

Yes this is likely to further increase our overestimation of anemia YLD rates (notebook), both by exacerbating our overestimation of moderate anemia prevalence and increasing severe anemia prevalence (which we currently underestimate).

\end{align*}

If this calculation results in a CFR exceeding 1, it should be clipped to 1.
However, we should record this somehow and revisit this strategy if it happens often.
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I can implement something quick for something simple to start if you have an appropriate metric.

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My thoughts on strategy here somewhat depend on whether this CFR value gets saved in the artifact... will it?

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We'll want to check, either in the sim or in the artifact, what proportion of these values (one for each age group/draw) exceed 1 before clipping.

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We could definitely save it.

@SylLutze SylLutze added the MNCNH_portfolio BMGF MNCNH portfolio work label May 5, 2026
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4 participants