CFA: Fixed major bugs in deaths projections

[kokbent]

Understand that this fix may not make it to the results, but it's good to get the bug fix (mainly in magnitude and delay model) in.

[github-actions]

Model Output

--- CFA-Scenarios/2025-04-27-CFA-Scenarios.gz.parquet ---

✅: [file_exists]: File exists at path 'model-output/CFA-Scenarios/2025-04-27-CFA-Scenarios.gz.parquet'.

✅: [file_name]: File name "2025-04-27-CFA-Scenarios.gz.parquet" is valid.

✅: [file_location]: File directory name matches model_id
metadata in file name.

✅: [round_id_valid]: round_id is valid.

✅: [file_format]: File is accepted hub format.

✅: [file_n]: Number of accepted model output files per round met.

✅: [metadata_exists]: Metadata file exists at path 'model-metadata/CFA-Scenarios.yaml'.

---

Run validation on files: 2025-04-27-CFA-Scenarios.gz.parquet

ℹ: [pairing_info]: No run grouping pairing; stochastic run pairing: scenario_id, location, target, horizon, age_group. Number of Samples: 300
✅: [valid_round_id_col]: round_id_col name is valid.

✅: [unique_round_id]: round_id column "origin_date" contains a single, unique round ID value.

✅: [match_round_id]: All round_id_col "origin_date" values match submission round_id from file name.

✅: [colnames]: Column names are consistent with expected round task IDs and std column names.

✅: [col_types]: Column data types match hub schema.

✅: [valid_vals]: tbl contains valid values/value combinations.

✅: [rows_unique]: All combinations of task ID column/output_type/output_type_id values are unique.

✅: [req_vals]: Task ID/output type/output_type_id combinations all present.

✅: [value_col_valid]: Values in column value all valid with respect to modeling task config.

✅: [value_col_non_desc]: Quantile or cdf value values increase when ordered by output_type_id.

✅: [spl_compound_taskid_set]: All samples in a model task conform to single, unique compound task ID set that matches or is
coarser than the configured compound_taksid_set.
Pairing information: scenario_id, location, target, horizon, age_group
✅: [spl_compound_tid]: Each sample compound task ID contains single, unique value.

ℹ: [spl_non_compound_tid]: Task ID combinations of non compound task id values not tested
✅: [spl_n]: Required unique number of samples per compound idx task present.
Only one number of samples from: 100 to 300 are accepted. Submission contains: 300
✅: [n_decimal]: value associated with sample is in a valid format.
A maximum of 1 decimal place is expected.
✅: [na_value]: value does not contain NA value.

❗: [flat_projection]: Some projections have a unique value for the whole projection period.
Please verify, for example: 2025-04-27, A-2025-04-01, 02, inc death, 0-130, quantile, 0.01; 2025-04-27, A-2025-04-01, 02, inc death, 0-130, quantile, 0.025; 2025-04-27, A-2025-04-01, 02, inc death, 0-130, quantile, 0.05; 2025-04-27, A-2025-04-01, 02, inc death, 0-64, quantile, 0.01; 2025-04-27, A-2025-04-01, 02, inc death, 0-64, quantile, 0.025
✅: [cumul_proj]: The cumulative values are not decreasing.

[kokbent]

Confirm that there's no run grouping, and flat projection is as expected

[LucieContamin]

Good morning,
I apologize for the delay, would it be possible to remove the change to the target-data files so I can merge it, please?
Please let me know if any questions or issues,
Best, Lucie

[kokbent]

Good morning, I apologize for the delay, would it be possible to remove the change to the target-data files so I can merge it, please? Please let me know if any questions or issues, Best, Lucie

I synced with midas-network:main repo it seems like that should work?