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Eval Observability — ΔS Thresholds

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A dedicated module for ΔS monitoring in evaluation pipelines.
ΔS = semantic distance between query, retrieved content, and gold anchor.
Tracking thresholds ensures that retrieval and reasoning quality remain auditable, measurable, and comparable.


Why ΔS thresholds matter

  • Detect semantic drift: High ΔS despite “correct” tokens indicates meaning mismatch.
  • Localize retrieval errors: Low similarity in meaning even if vector scores look fine.
  • Evaluate reasoning robustness: Stable models keep ΔS below the risk boundary across paraphrases.
  • Flag latent hallucinations: ΔS >0.60 strongly correlates with unsupported answers.

Core bands

Band Range Meaning
Stable ΔS < 0.40 Retrieval and reasoning aligned. Answers should be correct and verifiable.
Transitional 0.40 ≤ ΔS < 0.60 Risk zone. Minor schema changes or index drift may flip outcomes.
Critical ΔS ≥ 0.60 High failure probability. Almost always linked to missing context or schema break.

Acceptance targets

  • Per-query: ΔS ≤ 0.45
  • Batch average: ≤ 0.40
  • Allowance: ≤ 10% of queries can fall in the transitional band (0.40–0.60).
  • Critical: 0% tolerance for ΔS ≥ 0.60 in gold-set eval.

ΔS in eval workflow

  1. Probe per query
    Log ΔS(question, retrieved) and ΔS(retrieved, anchor).
  2. Batch roll-up
    Compute mean, variance, and percentile distribution.
  3. Compare across seeds
    Run three paraphrases and two random seeds; check convergence.
  4. Drift alerting
    If ΔS rises >0.05 vs baseline, trigger retraining or schema audit.

Example probe (pseudo)

def deltaS_probe(query, retrieved, anchor):
    d1 = deltaS(query, retrieved)
    d2 = deltaS(retrieved, anchor)
    return max(d1, d2)

for q in eval_set:
    s = deltaS_probe(q.query, q.retrieved, q.anchor)
    if s >= 0.60:
        alerts.append({"qid": q.id, "ΔS": s, "status": "critical"})

Common pitfalls

  • Using cosine similarity as ΔS → ΔS is semantic distance, not raw vector score.
  • Ignoring anchor comparison → must compute against both query and gold span.
  • No variance tracking → averages hide volatility; variance is key.
  • One-shot eval → without paraphrase/seed checks, thresholds lack reliability.

Reporting recommendations

  • ΔS histogram: visualize stability bands.
  • Trend line: track ΔS mean per batch over time.
  • Baseline delta: highlight drift from previous eval version.
  • Failure clustering: group queries where ΔS ≥0.60 for root-cause analysis.

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