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Analysis against all NOAA stations#173

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bkeepers merged 5 commits into
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noaa-benchmarks
Dec 18, 2025
Merged

Analysis against all NOAA stations#173
bkeepers merged 5 commits into
mainfrom
noaa-benchmarks

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@bkeepers
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@bkeepers bkeepers commented Dec 18, 2025

This runs some simple statistical analysis against neaps predictions for all NOAA stations, comparing them to NOAA's predictions. When the tests run, this will now generate noaa-benchmarks.csv, which include Mean Aggregate Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and cumulative bias for each station.

Here's a summary of the results.

MAE RMSE Bias
p50 0.0212 0.0242 -0.0021
p90 0.0554 0.0641 0.0181
p95 0.0725 0.0795 0.0360
P99 0.1203 0.1284 0.0607

So half of all stations are within 2cm, and 95% of stations are within 7cm of NOAA's predictions. That's honestly better than I thought it was going to be. Lots of room for improvement though.

TODO:

  • Compute basic error rates against NOAA stations
  • Prioritize which missing constituents are leading to the largest errors

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  • Prioritize which missing constituents are leading to the largest errors

It looks like there's only 1 station from NOAA that has missing constituents, which is Station 9455920 (Anchorage, AK).

Here's the list of missing constituents (cc #135)

  • SIGMA1
  • MP1
  • CHI1
  • 2PO1
  • SO1
  • MSN2
  • MNS2
  • OP2
  • MKS2
  • 2NS2
  • MLN2S2
  • 2ML2S2
  • SKM2
  • 2MS2K2
  • MKL2S2
  • M2KS2
  • 2SNMK2
  • 2KMSN2
  • SO3
  • SK3
  • NO3
  • MK4
  • SN4
  • 2MLS4
  • 3MS4
  • ML4
  • N4
  • SL4
  • MNO5
  • 2MO5
  • 2MK5
  • MSK5
  • 3KM5
  • 2MP5
  • 3MP5
  • MNK5
  • 2SM6
  • 2MN6
  • MSN6
  • 2MS6
  • 2NMLS6
  • 2NM6
  • MSL6
  • 2ML6
  • MSK6
  • 2MLNS6
  • 3MLS6
  • 2MK6
  • 2MNO7
  • 2NMK7
  • 2MSO7
  • MSKO7
  • 2MSN8
  • 3MS8
  • 2MS8
  • 2MN8
  • 3MN8
  • 2MSL8
  • 4MLS8
  • 3ML8
  • 3MK8
  • 2MSK8
  • 2M2NK9
  • 3MNK9
  • 4MK9
  • 3MSK9
  • 4MN10
  • M10
  • 3MNS10
  • 4MS10
  • 3MSL10
  • 3M2S10
  • 4MSK11
  • 4MNS12
  • 5MS12
  • 4MSL12
  • 4M2S12
  • TK1
  • RP1
  • KP1
  • THETA1
  • KJ2
  • OO2

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codecov Bot commented Dec 18, 2025

Codecov Report

✅ All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests.
✅ Project coverage is 100.00%. Comparing base (83d00e3) to head (c34d79a).
⚠️ Report is 7 commits behind head on main.

Additional details and impacted files
@@            Coverage Diff            @@
##              main      #173   +/-   ##
=========================================
  Coverage   100.00%   100.00%           
=========================================
  Files           10        10           
  Lines          889       889           
  Branches       127       127           
=========================================
  Hits           889       889           

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* origin/main:
  chore(deps-dev): Bump vitest from 3.2.4 to 4.0.15
  chore(deps-dev): Bump @types/node from 20.19.27 to 25.0.2
  chore(deps-dev): Bump @vitest/coverage-v8 from 3.2.4 to 4.0.15
@bkeepers bkeepers merged commit a853022 into main Dec 18, 2025
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@bkeepers bkeepers deleted the noaa-benchmarks branch December 18, 2025 15:27
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