AI Deepresearch for prediction markets: polyseer.xyz**
Seriously, unless you're a developer who wants to modify the code, just use the hosted version. It's free, already set up, and works immediately. No setup required.
Still here? Okay, you must really want to run this locally. Here's how:
This is the simplest way to run Polyseer on your computer. No authentication, no database setup required.
- Node.js 18+ - Download here
- pnpm - Install with:
npm install -g pnpm - OpenAI API Key - Get from platform.openai.com
- Valyu API Key - Get from platform.valyu.ai
1. Clone the repo:
git clone https://github.com/yorkeccak/polyseer.git
cd polyseer2. Install dependencies:
pnpm install3. Create .env.local file in the project root:
NEXT_PUBLIC_APP_MODE=development
OPENAI_API_KEY=sk-proj-... # Get from platform.openai.com
VALYU_API_KEY=valyu_... # Get from platform.valyu.ai4. Start the app:
pnpm dev5. Open http://localhost:3000 and paste any Polymarket or Kalshi URL!
That's it. No authentication, no database required.
If you want to save your analyses to view later, set up Supabase:
- Create a free project at supabase.com
- Go to SQL Editor → New Query
- Copy/paste everything from
supabase/setup.sqland click Run - Go to Settings → API and add to your
.env.local:
NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_URL=https://xxx.supabase.co
NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_ANON_KEY=eyJhbGciOiJ...Restart pnpm dev and your analyses will be saved.
Only needed if you want user authentication and public deployment.
Add these to your .env.local:
NEXT_PUBLIC_APP_MODE=production
SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY=eyJhbGciOiJ... # From Supabase Settings → API
VALYU_CLIENT_ID=your-client-id # Email [email protected] for OAuth credentials
VALYU_CLIENT_SECRET=your-client-secret
VALYU_REDIRECT_URI=http://localhost:3000/api/auth/valyu/callbackThen pnpm dev - users will need to sign in with Valyu.
Prediction markets tell you what might happen. Polyseer tells you why.
Drop in any Polymarket or Kalshi URL and get a structured analysis that breaks down the actual factors driving an outcome. Instead of gut feelings or surface-level takes, you get systematic research across academic papers, news, market data, and expert analysis.
Core features:
- Systematic research across academic, web, and market data sources
- Evidence classification and quality scoring
- Mathematical probability aggregation (not just vibes)
- Both sides research to avoid confirmation bias
- Real-time data, not stale information
Built for developers, researchers, and anyone who wants rigorous analysis instead of speculation.
Polyseer uses a multi-agent AI system to research markets:
- Planner Agent - Breaks down the question into research pathways
- Researcher Agents - Gather evidence from academic papers, news, and market data
- Critic Agent - Identifies gaps and quality issues in the research
- Analyst Agent - Combines evidence using Bayesian probability math
- Reporter Agent - Generates the final human-readable report
Each piece of evidence is classified by quality:
| Type | Description | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| A | Primary Sources | Official documents, press releases, regulatory filings |
| B | High-Quality Secondary | Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, expert analysis |
| C | Standard Secondary | Reputable news with citations |
| D | Weak/Speculative | Social media, unverified claims |
Polyseer uses Bayesian probability aggregation to combine evidence:
- Each piece of evidence has a log likelihood ratio based on its quality
- Evidence is adjusted for correlation (to avoid double-counting similar sources)
- Final probability is calculated using mathematical formulas, not vibes
- Next.js 16.1 - React framework with Turbopack (5-14× faster dev)
- React 19 - Latest React features
- pnpm - Fast package manager
- GPT-5 - Advanced reasoning model
- Valyu API - Real-time search across academic papers, news, and market data
- Supabase - Database and authentication (production mode only)
- Polymarket API - Market data
- Kalshi API - Market data
polyseer/
├── src/
│ ├── app/ # Next.js 16 app directory
│ │ ├── api/ # API routes (forecast, featured-markets, etc.)
│ │ ├── analysis/ # Analysis page
│ │ └── page.tsx # Homepage
│ ├── components/ # React components
│ ├── lib/ # Core logic
│ │ ├── agents/ # AI agents (planner, researcher, critic, etc.)
│ │ └── tools/ # Search tools (Valyu integration)
│ └── utils/ # Utilities
├── supabase/
│ └── setup.sql # One simple SQL file for database setup
├── .env.local # Your environment variables
└── README.md # This file
rm -rf .next node_modules
pnpm install
pnpm dev- Make sure you ran
supabase/setup.sqlin your Supabase SQL editor - Check your
NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_URLandNEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_ANON_KEYare correct
- Make sure you have
VALYU_API_KEYin your.env.local - Check you have credits at platform.valyu.ai
Open an issue on GitHub or email [email protected]
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE: Polyseer provides analysis for entertainment and research purposes only. All predictions are probabilistic and should not be used as the sole basis for financial decisions. Always do your own research.
MIT License - see LICENSE file for details.
- Valyu Network - Real-time search API and authentication
- OpenAI - GPT-5 reasoning capabilities
- Polymarket - Prediction market data
- Kalshi - Prediction market data
- Supabase - Database infrastructure
Seriously, go to polyseer.xyz and save yourself the headache.
Unless you want to hack on the code, there's no reason to self-host this. We already did the hard work for you.