Tune crossing failure probability calibration to reduce benchmark MSE

[0hmX]

Motivation

• Reduce Mean Squared Error (MSE) of the high-density benchmark predictor by improving the failure probability model used in routing scoring.
• Keep changes limited to the existing crossing probability calculation and avoid touching other solver logic or data flows.

Description

• Updated calculateNodeProbabilityOfFailure in lib/solvers/UnravelSolver/calculateCrossingProbabilityOfFailure.ts to replace the previous via-estimate/capacity ratio with a calibrated model.
• Added a safeCapacity floor via Math.max(totalCapacity, 0.05) to avoid unstable ratios on very small nodes.
• Compute a weightedCrossingLoad with adjusted weights, apply layerRelief for multi-layer nodes, convert to utilization against capacity, then map through a logistic calibration and a small baseline floor, clamped to [0,1].
• Preserved existing hard rules: nodes with _containsTarget return 0 and single-layer nodes with any crossing still return 1.

Testing

• Ran the high-density benchmark pipeline using the worker harness (runBenchmarkWithWorkers) on representative subsets to measure MSE before and after the change via the scripts/highdensity-benchmark tooling.
• Baseline MSE (sampled subset): 0.003227983353163425; New MSE (same sampled subset after change): 0.0027581947657854496; absolute improvement 0.0004697885873779752 and relative improvement 14.55% lower MSE.
• Also verified during development on an additional subset (first 200 cases) where a baseline run recorded 0.0037090839563132883 for reference; all benchmark runs completed successfully using runBenchmarkWithWorkers.
• Commands used for measurement included running the benchmark harness via bun -e '...runBenchmarkWithWorkers...' and computing MSE with scripts/highdensity-benchmark/metrics/calculateMse.ts, and all automated runs succeeded.

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Project	Deployment	Actions	Updated (UTC)
capacity-node-autorouter	Ready	Preview, Comment	Mar 12, 2026 9:00pm

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🏃 Benchmark This PR

Run benchmarks by commenting on this PR:

/benchmark [solver-name|all] [scenario-limit] --concurrency <n> --effort <n>

Examples:

• /benchmark -> AutoroutingPipelineSolver, all scenarios (default concurrency uses the benchmark runner CPU count)
• /benchmark AutoroutingPipelineSolver -> one solver, all scenarios
• /benchmark all 20 -> all solvers, first 20 scenarios
• /benchmark AutoroutingPipelineSolver 20 --concurrency 8 -> one solver, 20 scenarios, 8 workers
• /benchmark AutoroutingPipelineSolver 20 --effort 2 -> one solver, 20 scenarios, 2x effort

Any PR whose title contains [BENCHMARK TEST] will automatically run the benchmark workflow on PR updates.

[0hmX]

/benchmark

[tscircuitbot]

🏃 Autorouting Benchmark Results

📊 PR Results

Benchmark Results (1x effort)

+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+
| Solver                    | Completed %    | Relaxed DRC Pass % | Timed Out | P50 Time | P95 Time |
+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+
| AutoroutingPipelineSolver | 78.1% (🕒1.9%) | 1.9% (🕒1.9%)      | 2/105     | 6.7s     | 43.3s    |
+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+

Scenarios: 105

📊 Main Branch Results

Benchmark Results (1x effort)

+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+
| Solver                    | Completed %    | Relaxed DRC Pass % | Timed Out | P50 Time | P95 Time |
+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+
| AutoroutingPipelineSolver | 82.9% (🕒3.8%) | 1.9% (🕒3.8%)      | 4/105     | 6.1s     | 62.9s    |
+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+

Scenarios: 105

📦 Artifact: https://github.com/tscircuit/tscircuit-autorouter/actions/runs/23000129686

[0hmX]

/benchmark

[tscircuitbot]

🏃 Autorouting Benchmark Results

📊 PR Results

Benchmark Results (1x effort)

+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+
| Solver                    | Completed %    | Relaxed DRC Pass % | Timed Out | P50 Time | P95 Time |
+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+
| AutoroutingPipelineSolver | 78.1% (🕒1.0%) | 1.0% (🕒1.0%)      | 1/105     | 5.3s     | 57.3s    |
+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+

Scenarios: 105

📊 Main Branch Results

Benchmark Results (1x effort)

+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+
| Solver                    | Completed %    | Relaxed DRC Pass % | Timed Out | P50 Time | P95 Time |
+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+
| AutoroutingPipelineSolver | 82.9% (🕒3.8%) | 1.9% (🕒3.8%)      | 4/105     | 6.1s     | 62.9s    |
+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+

Scenarios: 105

📦 Artifact: https://github.com/tscircuit/tscircuit-autorouter/actions/runs/23001405060

[0hmX]

/benchmark

[tscircuitbot]

🏃 Autorouting Benchmark Results

📊 PR Results

Benchmark Results (1x effort)

+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+
| Solver                    | Completed %    | Relaxed DRC Pass % | Timed Out | P50 Time | P95 Time |
+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+
| AutoroutingPipelineSolver | 78.1% (🕒1.9%) | 1.9% (🕒1.9%)      | 2/105     | 5.4s     | 33.8s    |
+---------------------------+----------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+

Scenarios: 105

📊 Main Branch Results

Benchmark Results (1x effort)

+---------------------------+-------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+
| Solver                    | Completed % | Relaxed DRC Pass % | Timed Out | P50 Time | P95 Time |
+---------------------------+-------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+
| AutoroutingPipelineSolver | 83.8%       | 1.9%               | 0/105     | 9.5s     | 71.8s    |
+---------------------------+-------------+--------------------+-----------+----------+----------+

Scenarios: 105

📦 Artifact: https://github.com/tscircuit/tscircuit-autorouter/actions/runs/23023603112

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