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During the rapidly change phase of the growth of an outbreak, we have some evidence of local transmission but there is still limited data for calibration. The focus of this stage is therefore calibration under data limited constraints, as in Phase 1, but now with increased intervention scenarios. ### Model requirements 1. NPIs that involve itinerary changes, such as school closure and stay-at-home orders 2. Testing available 3. Delay distributions for case detection and hospitalization of symptomatic infections 4. School contact structure ### Calibration targets 1. Age-structured deaths and hospitalizations 2. Line list data of cases detected 3. Percent of individuals who test positive and randomly sampled serology ### Modeling questions 1. How big could the outbreak be without interventions (ICU, hospitalizations, deaths)? 2. When and how long should different NPIs be implemented to meet certain criteria? 3. What is the impact on ICU capacity due to relaxing planned NPIs?
No due date•8/27 issues closed# Deliverables 1. Working model of importation and transmission that estimates total SARS-CoV-2 infections at the state level in a global context. 2. Calibration framework that fits model parameters to the early reported cases and first reported death in Indiana, provided alongside inferred trajectories of true undetected cases over the calibration period and forward in time for the predicted epidemic trajectory (in the absence of any public health interventions or behavior change).1 3. Documentation including model description and how to run it. # Requirements 1. Importation must occur in a synthetic population that reflects demographic and geographic characteristics of Indiana. 2. Time-varying importations to account for a domestic or global transmission rate and travel rate into Indiana. 3. Appropriate data sources to inform natural history parameters.
Overdue by 3 month(s)•Due by March 6, 2026•23/23 issues closed