Reproducible trade and economic-complexity analytics for identifying structural transformation patterns and export-diversification opportunities in Latin America, with a detailed application to Bolivia.
Repository: https://github.com/MonicaCT/economic-complexity-structural-transformation-lac
| KPI | Verified value |
|---|---|
| Country-product-year observations | 6,497,429 |
| Countries | 242 |
| HS92 four-digit products | 1,243 |
| Period | 1995-2023 |
| Bolivia ECI, 2023 | -1.236 |
| Bolivia strategic bets | 11 |
- The public processed panel covers 6,497,429 country-product-year observations across 242 countries, 1,243 HS92 products and 1995-2023.
- Bolivia's 2023 export basket records ECI = -1.236, diversity = 82, HHI = 0.124 and primary export share = 62.7 percent.
- The 2023 Product Space contains 701,978 analytical positive edges and a 698-edge visual subset used for dashboard interpretation.
- The relative Bolivia opportunity screen identifies 11 strategic bets, 239 incremental extensions and 107 transformational long shots.
- Fixed-effects models are presented as observational associations with country and year fixed effects, not causal estimates.
R, Shiny, Quarto, data.table, ggplot2, plotly, DT, GitHub Pages, Markdown, reproducibility scripts and validation reports.
Trade data processing; Country-product panel construction; Data validation; Economic complexity indicators; Network analysis; Opportunity prioritization; Interactive dashboards; Reproducible reporting; Policy-oriented data communication.
Research questionHow do economic complexity, export diversification and Product Space proximity characterize divergent structural transformation patterns in Latin America, and what do they imply for Bolivia's feasible diversification opportunities?
The repository links economic complexity, diversification, structural transformation and economic performance through a reproducible Latin American panel, with a detailed Bolivia application that separates nearby incremental extensions from more distant high-transformation opportunities.
Latin America's development challenge is not only to grow, but to build broader productive capabilities. Bolivia illustrates the policy tension clearly: many high-transformation products are distant from the current export basket, while nearby products may offer limited upgrading. This repository turns local trade and macro data into a reproducible complexity workflow, validates the main indicators and translates product-level metrics into cautious screening tools for further sector research.
- The processed panel covers 6,497,429 country-product-year observations, 242 countries, 1,243 HS92 four-digit products and 1995-2023.
- Bolivia 2023 records ECI = -1.236, diversity = 82, HHI = 0.124 and primary export share = 62.7 percent.
- Bolivia's HHI is slightly above the regional median reported in validation outputs; concentration is interpreted comparatively, not in isolation.
- The 2023 Product Space has 701,978 analytical positive edges and a 698-edge visual subset; density uses the analytical matrix.
- The relative opportunity screen identifies 11 strategic bets, 239 incremental extensions, 107 transformational long shots, 454 middle-range candidates, 41 low-priority products and 286 excluded candidates.
- Fixed-effects models are observational associations with country and year fixed effects; they are not causal estimates.
| Indicator | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| ECI 2023 | -1.236 | Relative annual complexity position. |
| Diversity | 82 | HS4 products with RCA >= 1. |
| HHI | 0.124 | Slightly above the reported regional median of 0.118. |
| Primary export share | 62.7% | Resource and primary-product orientation remains important. |
| Strategic bets | 11 | Relative screening candidates, not automatic investment recommendations. |
| Incremental extensions | 239 | Nearer products that may support learning and export continuity. |
| Dimension | Classification |
|---|---|
| Primary Lab | Applied Economics Lab |
| Secondary Labs | Research Methods Lab; Data Science Lab; Open Science Lab |
| Research domain | Economic complexity, structural transformation, diversification and development economics |
| Research question | How do productive capabilities and Product Space proximity shape feasible diversification paths in Latin America and Bolivia? |
| Methods | RCA, ECI, PCI, Product Space proximity, density, Opportunity Gain, network analysis and panel econometrics |
| Tools | R, Shiny, Quarto, GitHub Actions, validation scripts and reproducible research workflows |
| Scientific status | Published repository; working paper; reproducible research project; Zenodo archived release |
| Portfolio role | Demonstrates advanced economic-complexity analysis, Product Space methods, network analysis, panel econometrics, reproducible research and policy-oriented interpretation for Latin America and Bolivia. |
The figures below reuse existing final outputs. No figure, model or indicator is regenerated in this portfolio update.
Source: outputs/figures/png/01_eci_latin_america_trends.png. Period: 1995-2023. Method note: ECI is standardized within each year, so trends show relative annual position.
Source: outputs/figures/png/02_complexity_income.png. Period: final analytical panel output. Method note: the relationship is descriptive and should not be read as causal.
Source: outputs/figures/png/03_diversity_concentration.png. Period: 1995-2023 analytical panel. Method note: diversity counts products with RCA above the project threshold; HHI summarizes export concentration.
Source: outputs/figures/png/04_lac_export_composition.png. Period: 1995-2023. Method note: sector composition is aggregated from HS92 product groups.
Source: outputs/figures/png/05_bolivia_structural_dashboard.png. Period: Bolivia 2023 and historical panel context. Method note: indicators are screening metrics, not policy prescriptions.
Source: outputs/figures/png/06_bolivia_product_space.png. Period: 2023 Product Space. Method note: the visual network is a reduced subset of the analytical proximity matrix.
Source: outputs/figures/png/07_bolivia_density_pci.png. Period: 2023 opportunity screen. Method note: density measures proximity to Bolivia's current capabilities.
Source: outputs/figures/png/08_bolivia_opportunity_matrix.png. Period: Bolivia 2023. Method note: opportunity categories support prioritization for further review, not automatic investment selection.
See executive tables for recruiter-facing summaries of indicators, rankings and Bolivia opportunities.
- 6,497,429 country-product-year observations;
- 242 countries;
- 1,243 HS92 four-digit products;
- 1995-2023.
The original local source folders contain roughly 168.3 GB and are not included in GitHub. Large processed caches are also ignored. Public samples and validation outputs are included so the repository can be inspected without private local data.
flowchart TD
A[Raw public trade data] --> B[Validation and harmonization]
B --> C[Country-product analytical panel]
C --> D[RCA, ECI, PCI and network indicators]
D --> E[Opportunity screening]
E --> F[Figures, tables, dashboard and reports]
- Sources: public HS92 country-product-year trade data and macro/context indicators documented in the methodology.
- Unit of observation: country-product-year for the trade panel; country-year and product-year for derived indicators.
- Coverage: 6,497,429 observations, 242 countries, 1,243 HS92 four-digit products and 1995-2023.
- Main transformations: harmonization, RCA matrix construction, ECI/PCI estimation, Product Space proximity, density and opportunity screening.
- Limits: original large source folders are not distributed; public samples and validation outputs are included for inspection and demo execution.
flowchart LR
A[Local HS92 trade data] --> B[RCA and MCP matrix]
B --> C[ECI, diversity, ubiquity]
B --> D[Product Space proximity]
D --> E[Density and Opportunity Gain]
C --> F[Regional patterns and models]
E --> G[Bolivia opportunity screen]
G --> H[Absolute and relative classifications]
The analysis uses established economic-complexity methods. ECI is standardized within each year, so longitudinal movement is interpreted as relative annual position. Product rankings are analytical screening tools rather than investment prescriptions.
Detailed documentation: methodology, empirical strategy, Product Space validation, limitations and reproducibility guide.
- Working paper HTML
- Working paper PDF
- Policy brief
- Final repository check
- Validation report
- Test results
If PDF artifacts are absent after cloning, regenerate them with Rscript scripts/render_paper.R.
The repository includes a static GitHub Pages portfolio view and local Shiny dashboard code. The Shiny dashboard includes regional ECI trajectories, a Bolivia Opportunity Lab, Product Space diagnostics, econometric model tables and validation notes.
- Static portfolio gallery: GitHub Pages
- Local Shiny source: dashboard/app.R
- Main sections: Executive Overview, Country Explorer, Product Explorer, Product Space, Bolivia Opportunity Lab, Econometric Evidence and Data and Methods.
- Use: open the static page for recruiter-facing results, or run the Shiny dashboard locally for interactive filtering.
Rscript scripts/run_dashboard.RDashboard source: dashboard/app.R.
R/ Main R pipeline and demo script scripts/ Validation, rendering and final-check scripts data/sample/ Small public sample data docs/ Audits, methodology and GitHub preparation notes docs/assets/ Repository banner and dashboard preview outputs/ Final figures, reports and small tables paper/ Working paper, appendix, policy brief and references dashboard/ Local Shiny dashboard config/ Example configuration files tests/ Lightweight validation tests
## Reproducibility
- Demo: `Rscript R/98_run_demo.R` uses only public samples.
- Processed-data workflow: validation and final-check scripts inspect committed processed outputs without scanning private raw folders.
- Full reconstruction: copy `config/paths.example.yml` to ignored `config/paths.local.yml`, edit local paths and run `Rscript R/99_run_all.R`.
See [REPRODUCIBILITY.md](docs/REPRODUCIBILITY.md) for the full distinction between demo execution, processed-output checks and full reconstruction.
## Limitations
The project uses export data, so it does not observe non-exported capabilities, services, informal production, environmental constraints, firm-level readiness or political economy. Opportunity scores guide screening; they do not select investments. Econometric models are descriptive associations, not causal estimates. Product-level classifications depend on HS92 data quality, RCA thresholds and the distance/proximity structure used in the Product Space.
## Citation
DOI: <https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21314881>
Cueto Tapia, M. (2026). *Economic Complexity and Structural Transformation in Latin America: Productive Capabilities, Divergent Development Paths, and Diversification Opportunities for Bolivia* (Version 1.0.1) [Research software and reproducible analysis]. GitHub. <https://github.com/MonicaCT/economic-complexity-structural-transformation-lac>
Use [CITATION.cff](CITATION.cff) for machine-readable citation metadata, including the Zenodo DOI.
## Author
[Monica Cueto Tapia](https://github.com/MonicaCT)
Applied Economist | Research Scientist | Development Analytics | Public Policy | Business Intelligence | Data Science | Open Science
## Portfolio navigation
[Back to Monica Cueto Tapia's research portfolio](https://github.com/MonicaCT)
**Primary Lab:** Applied Economics Lab
**Secondary Labs:** Research Methods Lab, Data Science Lab, Open Science Lab
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