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SEI_Lib 0.7 Macro_Economy_Segment_Calculator_Capabilities

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bwyss edited this page Mar 16, 2011 · 6 revisions

The Macroeconomic model constitutes a representation of the key aggregate outcomes of an economy, based on definitions, identities and relationships established under the System of National Accounts. Several key sectors are represented, including the Real, Monetary, External and Government Sector. Outputs from the Population and the Capital Stock Models constitute key inputs for the estimation of output via a production function. A set of behavioral equations are added to capture dynamics of markets and agents' decisions under a model specification that departs from a general equilibrium framework. The macroeconomic model constitutes a core framework for the estimation of key variables that play a central role in several tools for the analysis of social and economic impacts from seismic events, such as: SAMs, Sequential Inter Industry Models, CBAs, etc.

link_to_notes (this goes to etherpad)

  • Assumptions

    • There exists a production function which is a mathematical specification of the way ho inputs (capital, labor, human capital...) transform into output (GDP or Value Added) for a given technology
    • Outputs from the Population Cohort Model and the Capital Stock Model constitute inputs for the production function.
    • A set of identities and functional relationships among macroeconomic variables can be established following guidelines given by United Nations' System of National Accounts
    • Dynamic behavior of variables from the macroeconomic model can be ascertained from the identified set of identities and functional relationships, plus a set of behavioral equations for key concepts linked to market structure and agent's decision making process.
    • Dynamic behavior of macroeconomic variables feed back into the Population Cohort Model, the Capital Stock Model and the Model for the Micro-economy.
    • The macroeconomic model constitutes a departure from a General Equilibrium framework.
    • There exist a set of indicators that permit map macroeconomic outcomes (from the national level) to regional levels.

  • Design

A System Dynamics variation or departure from a Computable General Equilibrium Model will be constructed, using inputs from the Population Cohort Model and the Capital Stock Model, which will link to other macroeconomic variables via a production function. Linkages to the Model for the Micro-economy will be established via a set of behavioral equations for key variables (such as income, consumption and labor market indicators).

The Population Cohort Model and the Capital Stock Model (and, later on, possibly a Natural Endowments and Financial Assets Endowments Model) will encompass the so-called Capabilities sub-component, as they are focused in computing the variables that determine the ability of the country to generate wealth. In turn, the Models for the Macro-economy and the Micro-economy are thought as part of a Social Well Being Sub-component, as they serve as basis for computing indicators and to feed into tools for social-economic impact analysis.

Variables from the social well-­being and the capabilities sub-­components will feed back to the Risk Module, as this component will provide initial values for variables of interests (such as casualties, injuries, loss of capital stock from earthquakes) as inputs to the SEIM in period 't', and this module wool yield back estimated values of these and other variables for 'n' periods thereafter (t+1---t+n).

  • User stories:

    • Some user should be able to X.
    • Some user needs to be able to Y.

  • Suggested Implementation

Describe here how the component or module will be implemented. Please be detailed, but note that it is only a suggestion, actual implementation details will be hammered out at the Design Summit and also on the mailing list. Use complete sentences and paragraph breaks.

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